Bubble Boys & Breakevens – Round 13

In the fantasy football world, the term “break-even” is used quite consistently and is a very important concept that has the capacity to make or break a SuperCoach season.

A player’s break-even is a dynamic tool that helps us track the price of each individual player, and is utilised during trading. The higher a player’s break-even, the more unlikely that a player will reach the target, resulting in a price drop. The lower a player’s break-even, the more likely the player will reach the target, resulting in a price rise.

The term “on-the-bubble” states that a player has played their first two games of the season and is now expected to change prices in the coming weeks – depending on their previous output. The rollercoaster ride of prices begins once players play three games during a season, prices then fluctuate weekly. It is the SuperCoach stock market.

This article will cover the highest and lowest break-evens (BE) for the upcoming week, and outline the best and worst selections at the trade table.

Cash Cows

Jack Trengove

Position: Midfield
Price: $156,500
Breakeven: -47

Showed little sign that his return match took it out of him, Trengove improved upon his SuperCoach output this week against Collingwood. He’ll sneak one more game in before Melbourne have the bye and will get a rest at probably the opportune time. Given he’s a leader at the club, we’d expect his job security to be almost solely dependent on his fitness; his performances over the past fortnight strong in that department. On the bubble this week, he’s a must have.

Kade Stewart

Position: Midfield
Price: $102,400
Breakeven: -98

What an enticing breakeven! Has performed well in his first two games, getting enough of the ball while hitting the scoreboard – he has three career goals. Tempting as his low price and breakeven may be his job security must be taken into consideration before you bite the bullet. Sam Mitchell, Taylor Duryea, and Jon Ceglar are all likely to make their way back into Hawthorn’s lineup this week and Luke Hodge is not far away either.

Surprise Packet

Josh Jenkins

Position: Forward

Josh Jenkins has been on fire. He really has been in stunning form the last three weeks, finding plenty of the football, providing a target forward and taking marks. He has benefitted immensely from Taylor Walker’s return to form. Although he has the bye this week, Jenkins must be on the radar of SuperCoachers with a three round average of 125.7 and a promising fixture for the remainder of the year. Jenkins is predicted to drop below 90 SuperCoach points in only one of the 10 games to come.

Warning Signs

Adam Treloar

Position: Midfield
Price: $548,500
Breakeven: 168

Treloar is another player who has the bye this week but is certainly worth discussing. His form of late has dropped, his three round average just over 88. Given his season average is 108.5 his recent form has been a disappointment to the coaches who own him. The young Magpie’s form has dropped in line with the absence of another ex-Giant, Taylor Adams. Adams has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury and is set to miss another 3-4 weeks. Without Adams, Treloar has scored 89 and 73 in his last three. Although he has Fremantle and Carlton to come after his bye, I’d be concerned.


(played at least two games)
 Player Position  Team Price Games Avg Breakeven
K. Stewart MID HAW $102,400 2 80 -98
 J. Jansen MID  BR $123,900 2 66 -59
L. Austin DEF PTA $123,900 2 61 -49
J. Trengove MID MEL $156,500 2 70 -47
J. Rose FWD SYD $155,400 2 68 -43
 R. Mathieson MID BR $117,300 2 56 -41
M. Daw RUC/FWD NTH $243,600 2 92 -38
S. Collins DEF FRE $173,500 3 66 -35
K. Lovell MID HAW $126,300 2 53 -30
 D. Currie RUC GCS $268,500 4 77 -27



(played at least two games)
 Player Position  Team Price Games Avg Breakeven
 A. Sandilands RUC FRE $581,700 2 67 215
 D. Beams MID BR $612,100 2 79 209
 I. Maric RUC RIC $514,900 2 52 205
 B. Gibbs MID CAR $535,300 12 103 200
 S. McKernan RUC ESS $451,500 2 36 199
L. Dahlhaus FWD/MID WBD $477,200 12 98 189
JJ. Kennedy FWD WCE $534,900 12 104 185
 N. Fyfe MID FRE $624,600 5 105 181
L. Neale MID FRE $624,900 12 111 169
A. Treloar MID COL $548,500 12 108 168


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