SuperCoach

Bubble Boys & Breakevens – Round 22

In the fantasy football world, the term “break-even” is used quite consistently and is a very important concept that has the capacity to make or break a SuperCoach season.

A player’s break-even is a dynamic tool that helps us track the price of each individual player, and is utilised during trading. The higher a player’s break-even, the more unlikely that a player will reach the target, resulting in a price drop. The lower a player’s break-even, the more likely the player will reach the target, resulting in a price rise.

The term “on-the-bubble” states that a player has played their first two games of the season and is now expected to change prices in the coming weeks – depending on their previous output. The rollercoaster ride of prices begins once players play three games during a season, prices then fluctuate weekly. It is the SuperCoach stock market.

This article will cover the highest and lowest break-evens (BE) for the upcoming week, and outline the best and worst selections at the trade table.

CASH COWS

 

REILLY O’BRIEN

RUC | $117,300 | AVG: 63 | BE: -53

Sam Jacobs out as a result of injury again meant young ruckman Reilly O’Brien was responsible to pickup the slack. As a 20-year-old, 201-centimetre ruckman, O’Brien appears to be the backup number one ruck whenever big ‘Sauce’ is unfit, thus forming warning signs if you’re looking to bring him in.

Despite a concerning job security, O’Brien has been good for the Crows without being fantastic. Sunday afternoon marked his second game for the year where he had 12 disposals and 18 hitouts for just 48 SuperCoach points en route towards Adelaide’s 72-point demolition of Fremantle.

Even though O’Brien is projected to rise approximately $50.8k in cash if he plays, you’d have to be worried if Jacobs is in line to return – therefore hold out bringing him in until after teams are announced on Thursday evening.

MICHAEL CLOSE

FWD | $127,600 | AVG: 75.5 | BE: -72

It’s hard to justify selecting Brisbane’s Michael Close, however on the back of a four-goal performance against the Blues on Saturday he may have earned himself a forward downgrade selection if you’re in the hunt for one. To go along with his bag of goals, Close had nine disposals, at a handy 100% efficiency, with five marks and five tackles to equal 103 SuperCoach points.

Close’s less convincing 48-point performance in Round 19 against Port Adelaide is alarming, however at a touch over $127k his price might be too hard to ignore. Of course given he’s a young key-position player, he’s not your first choice option, but if you’re eager to move on a rookie forward that has finished making you cash – look to Close as there aren’t a whole lot of other options available.

RUPERT WILLS

MID | $206,100 | AVG: 92 | BE: -63

In the past fortnight both Kristian and Dan have mentioned the name Rupert Wills, and you would be seriously silly to not already have hopped on the bandwagon – if you’re seeking a downgrade option to generate some cash that is.

For the third week in a row, Wills was a standout for the Magpies, collecting 16 disposals and 12 tackles for a SuperCoach output of 83 points in their three-point loss to the Bulldogs. Yet to drop below the 80-point mark, combining with an average of 92 points from three matches, Wills is the perfect pickup if you’re begging for that perfect downgrade option or just some reasonable bench cover.

SURPRISE PACKET

 

LUKE SHUEY

MID | $549,500 | AVG: 106.1 | BE: 50

In his best scoring game of the season, Luke Shuey was exceptional to say the least, displaying one of the best individual performances for the season. The Eagles midfielder scored an enormous 179 SuperCoach points, accumulating 38 possessions (23 contested) at 84% efficiency, to go with six tackles, 13 clearances, six inside 50’s and two goals in West Coast’s one-point win over the Giants.

For a player with a seasonal average of 106.1 and ten SuperCoach tons for the year it’s certainly surprising that Shuey sits in just 2.3% of SuperCoach sides. With just two games to go, and Hawthorn and Adelaide in his sights, look for Shuey to be influential again to help spur the Eagles towards a top four finish – he could assuredly be a unique selection for your team.

WARNING SIGNS

JIMMY BARTEL

DEF/MID | $431,700 | AVG: 92.1 | BE: 160

Veteran Cat Jimmy Bartel has been disappointing since his 300-game milestone in Round 19 with a score of 60 and then 48 SuperCoach points to round out his past fortnight. Bartel again struggled to find much of the ball against Richmond on Sunday afternoon with a mere 15 disposals and an uncharacteristic four clangers beside his name.

The last two games have been a bit of a low patch for Bartel, who across the season has been reasonably consistent – amassing nine SuperCoach hundreds from 19 matches. It can be assumed that a majority of those with Bartel will lack the plethora of trades to be able to trade him out this late in the season – therefore all that can be done is to hold on and hope for the best.

TOP 10 LOWEST BREAKEVENS (PLAYED AT LEAST TWO GAMES)

PLAYER TEAM POSITION PRICE BREAKEVEN OWNED AVERAGE
M. Close BRIS FWD $127,600 -72 0.5% 75
A. Marcon RICH MID $102,400 -65 5.6% 64
R. Wills COLL MID $206,100 -63 4.1% 92
R. O’Brien ADEL RUC $117,300 -53 0.8% 63
N. Broad RICH DEF $117,300 -46 9.8% 59
J. Long ESS MID/FWD $117,300 -45 3.2% 59
K. Heatherley HAW DEF $123,900 -43 0.4% 60
K. Lovell HAW MID $126,300 -28 1.2% 53
A. Smith BRIS RUC $189,500 -24 1.9% 79
J. Leslie GCS DEF $253,600 -23 0.4% 90

 

TOP 10 HIGHEST BREAKEVENS (PLAYED AT LEAST TWO GAMES)

PLAYER TEAM POSITION PRICE BREAKEVEN OWNED AVERAGE
I. Maric RICH RUC $447,500 203 0.5% 52
P. Dangerfield GEEL MID $619,700 185 67.1% 130
S. Lycett WCE RUC/FWD $375,200 174 8.9% 83
S. Pendlebury COLL MID $556,000 169 38.8% 116
J. Steven STK MID $476,800 162 8.8% 103
J. Bartel GEEL DEF/MID $431,700 160 20.4% 92
R. Gray PTA MID $513,500 160 13.6% 104
M. Clark GEEL FWD $346,000 159 0.2% 28
M. Murphy CARL MID/FWD $421,100 159 0.6% 79
J. Gunston HAW FWD $478,200 158 9.8% 95

 

As always, we’ve been working hard behind the scenes to bring you EVERY single breakeven.

DOWNLOAD IT HERE!

 

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