Trade and FA

How Hawks could get their trade targets

With their 2016 season and hopes for a historic fourth consecutive flag now over, Hawthorn will turn its attention to the upcoming draft and how they will go about securing Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell and Tyrone Vickery.

For a club that finished the home and away season in third position to be able to orchestrate deals for all three seems an almost impossible task. However, as we have come to discover over the years, if the Hawks seriously go after a particular player, that player inevitably turns out in the brown and gold the following season.

O’Meara is the pick of the three and will cost Hawthorn at least a high first round draft selection, or a lower pick and a player. Mitchell is worth a little less, but will still also command a first round selection, while Vickery is a restricted free agent, so either the Tigers will not match the Hawks offer and he moves for free, or they do and Hawthorn will have to offer a pick somewhere around a mid to late second round, or early third.

Heading into this years’ trade period, the Hawks are armed with picks 14, 32, 50, 68, 86 and 104. A total of 2077 points.

With O’Meara valued at 1868 points (6-10), Mitchell 1192 (17-23), and Vickery 674 (30-35), should Richmond match Hawthorn’s offer, they do not have the necessary selections and also fall well short of the 3737 points in total required to bring in all three.

Quite simply, to get all three to Waverly next season the Hawks will have to give up a 2017 selection and a number of players.

Which Hawks are trade options?

 

 

Brad Hill appears set to join his older brother Stephen at Fremantle. With a trade value of 779 points, Hill is worth a mid to late second round pick (30-35). However, as the Dockers have already traded their 2016 second round selection to the Gold Coast, their next available pick is 39, which given the circumstances will more than likely be enough to get the deal done.

So who else will the Hawks give up? With Ty Vickery coming in, James Sicily’s position appears the most vulnerable. Like many of his teammates, the 22-year old has struggled to cement a permanent place in a powerful Hawthorn outfit, but has shown plenty of promise when given an opportunity.

Sicily could be an attractive option for the Suns. After losing Charlie Dixon last year there is an opening there, and a forward line of Tom Lynch, Peter Wright and James Sicily would be a strong one for the Gold Coast for many seasons to come. Valued at 727 points, on the open market Sicily would attract a mid-second round selection (26-30).

Despite denials from his manager that he is a trade option for the Hawks, rumours persist that Luke Breust has been told by the club that it is a possibility. Originally from NSW, Breust would certainly spark Sydney’s interest, but just how much remains to be seen.

At 25 years of age Breust has plenty of football left in him, and has just come off arguably his most successful season to date from an individual perspective, producing a career high disposal average of 15.7, while posting stats in other areas comparable to his best. Breust would attract a mid to high second-round selection somewhere between pick 22 and 27.

*After review, Luke Breust’s value has been adjusted, due to an initial oversight in our valuation formula for the Hawk forward. His revised value is a mid to low first round pick 12-17.

 

 

Billy Hartung is another Hawk that has not been able to cement a permanent position in the Hawks senior outfit, and would no doubt attract interest from opposition clubs. However, if Hill departs the Hawks would be loath to trade out someone of Hartung’s pace.

Will Langford could be offered up. Following a stellar 2014 finals series Langford has not come on as the Hawks would have liked. Injuries have played a part, but even when healthy he has been overlooked, and if Mitchell comes in Hawthorn are well-stocked for inside midfielders.

Langford’s value on the open market has fallen dramatically since the end of 2014. Currently valued at 534 points, he would attract a late second to early third round selection.

Paul Puopolo’s name has also come up as a trading option, although admittedly not as much as those already mentioned. Turning 29 at the end of this year and valued at 957 points, ‘Poppy’ would still attract an early to mid second round selection.

How the Hawks can get it done

Hawthorn list manager Graham Wright. Picture: Michael Klein

Hawthorn list manager Graham Wright. Picture: Michael Klein

Firstly, Hawthorn will be hoping Richmond do not match their offer for Vickery. However, it would be a major surprise if the Tigers did go down this road, as it would be the first time a club has elected to do so since free agency was introduced at the end of the 2012 season.

Presuming Brad Hill goes to the Dockers for pick 39, Hawthorn will have now have picks 14, 32, 39, 50, 68, 86 and 104, as well as Tyronne Vickery.

Gold Coast have indicated they will demand substantial compensation from the Hawks for O’Meara, and are in a strong position to do so. However, they will not get the exhortative amount for him that has been suggested.

Pick 14 and James Sicily could get the job done. In a package, pick 14 and Sicily would be valued at 1888 points – just above O’Meara’s value of 1868.

Gold Coast then go into the trade period and draft with another young and promising tall forward on their books, and armed with picks 4, 8, 14, 21, 22, 24, 39, 40, 58, 76 and 94.

 

This would leave Hawthorn with two trading options for Tom Mitchell. The first would be trading out Luke Breust and pick 32. With Mitchell valued at a late first round pick, an early second rounder and a player of Breust’s calibre would be a fair outcome for both parties.

Hawthorn get their man, and the Swans get a quality medium forward and 584 valuable draft points to use on their academy players.

The other option would be for Bruest to stay, and the Hawks offering pick 32 this year and their 2017 first round selection. Which with O’Meara, Mitchell and Vickery added to an already formidable outfit would however more than likely be lower than the 14th selection they earned this year.

While with any trade between clubs there are a myriad of options, not least of all the inclusion of a third party, those presented here appear the likeliest options at the present time.

But what is almost a certainty, is that come the end of the trade period all three players will be at the Hawthorn Football Club, and with them on board the Hawks will once again be premiership contenders in 2017.

 

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Jason

    October 3, 2016 at 1:41 am

    1 if GWS offered 2 first round picks for Bruest in 2014 then your valuation is well off the mark considering he became an all Australian in 2015.
    2. 3 time premiership players with 90 games experience who average 21 possessions a game and are only 22 dont go for pick 39 and since Hill is still under contract the Hawks will play hard ball. Picks in the range of 12- 25 will only do.
    3 if the suns want 2 first round picks for Omeara then their dreaming. Wright and co know this. He hasn’t played for 2 years and no matter how good he was beforehand there is no guarantee he will be again.
    Pick 14 and O’Brien should be enough to get that done.
    Mitchell deal will be for Hawthorns first round pick next season and their second round should be enough for Vickery.
    One way or another I expect them in Brown and Gold next year

  2. Jamie Radford

    September 22, 2016 at 8:25 am

    Thank you all for your comments. After rechecking Breust’s value it was found to be incorrect, and on our corrected value he is worth a mid to late first round pick around 12-17.

  3. Luke

    September 21, 2016 at 9:58 am

    Sorry to say, but I don’t agree with this. Undervalue young Premiership players…

    Jaeger hasn’t played AFL for 2 years…

    It’d be more like either Breust & our 2nd rounder for O’Meara & a first rounder or Sicily & a 2017 2nd rounder for Jaeger.

    Our Pick 14 & a 3rd rounder for Mitchell.

    Hill will go to either Freo for Mayne Compo or we will trade him to Eagles for a Duggan or MacKenzie.

  4. Saveferris

    September 21, 2016 at 9:40 am

    So let me get this straight, your idea of a trade for Mitchell, is to trade a player in Breust that has kicked between 40 and 57 goals per year for the past 5 seasons along with a second round pick.

    Breust is in the elite category for his position…..players that are this efficient are a rarity.

  5. M Walsh

    September 20, 2016 at 8:09 pm

    By the way Hawks finished 3rd, get facts right to start with.

  6. Mike

    September 20, 2016 at 4:47 pm

    Hill with a trade value of 779 points has been stated as worth a pick in the range of 30-35. Sicily with a trade value of 727 points has been stated as worth a pick in the range of 26-30…..Sicily has a lower trade value however it’s predicted that his draft range will get the Hawks more than Hill…..I’m confused????

  7. Rowan

    September 20, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    I’m pretty confident that Adelaide matched the free agency offer for Danger just last year, so the “this would be the first time” part of the article is completely wrong and makes me question the rest of the theory.

    • Sam Kimber

      Sam Kimber

      September 26, 2016 at 10:15 am

      Adelaide did not match the offer, a trade was done prior to this between the two clubs in good faith. Dangerfield therefore while eligible as a FA, did not join Geelong as a FA and was traded to the club.

  8. Liam

    September 20, 2016 at 3:58 pm

    How do you calculate the pick worth of players? Are you just taking a guess or is there a formula you use inconjuction with Champion Data or AFL player ratings.

  9. Ryan

    September 20, 2016 at 11:55 am

    Bruest and pick 32 for Mitchell? If anything Sydney need to add a pick for Mitchell / Bruest trade to take place

  10. Freddy

    September 19, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    Pick 39 for Hill…are you serious. He’s 23, triple premiership player, elite line breaking run. Bolton rates him and the Blues would throw at least their 2nd round pick at him, and the WCE would probably offer their 2nd or 1st rnd pick.

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