The Prophet’s Profit is back with a bang for a fifth year, and here to take you through the ups and down of the fantasy season. The aim of this article is to empower you with knowledge of the current fantasy stock market. Also don’t miss the Underground Prophet, for injury adds, speculative starts, loopholes and team news; everything the for serious fantasy footy fan right here on Footy Prophet.
Here we go! Another fantasy pre-season is well and truly underway. I’m back for another year to provide my honest weekly opinion and advice on the fantasy stock market. This article will mainly focus on players you need to look out for in your 2017 draft.
Position changes = value
When a player changes position it often means they’ll become more expensive and be worth a higher draft selection – but that’s if they get changed to a forward or back. The reverse is true when a player gets changed from a forward/back to a midfielder only. When a player goes from positional status to midfielder only they often get overlooked far longer than they should be. It’s important to keep on eye on these players as you could get value in the midfield in the mid to late rounds of your draft. This can be done simply by taking a chance on players others overlook simply because they’re no longer a forward or defender, without closely scrutinising their relative value when compared with other midfielders.
Those sort of midfielders of note who you can get for value in your draft.
I picked up Josh Kelly with pick 129 of the FP way too early mock draft. This is probably 20-30 picks after where he should have gone considering his ability and potential improvement. In his third year of footy the former number two draft pick played every game averaging 90 in 2016 – an average he should improve on with his natural progression.
Going from one of the highest averaging forwards last year to a mid only this year, Hall may be overlooked by a couple of rounds in your draft. He averaged 105 in his breakout season. Despite averaging 28 disposals a game he was dropped to the NEAFL on a couple of occasions, I’d probably still draft with caution.
We don’t have the luxury of being able to draft Dusty as a forward this year. But being a mid only could present the chance to get some value when from him. He hasn’t missed a game for four years and averaged 107 last year. Consistency is key in fantasy football, and there isn’t many more consistent that Dustin Martin.
A lottery pick is a flyer, basically a young guy you hope will break out and taken after the 18th round. When doing my first mock draft I expected to be able to select at least two or three lottery picks.
My advice would be not to take that flyer if there’s a solid guy that should be selected as a first 18 player still available after the 18th round. That depth will be important during the season, and will also give you a solid base to trade from.
Here are a couple of players that were taken after the 18th round in our FP mock draft that probably shouldn’t have been.
This guy was a revelation in the back end of last season. Averaging 95 fantasy points and stepping up in the midfield for the Cats. He may be going late in drafts due to apprehension over whether he can do it again over a full season. However, with averages of 106 in the VFL last season and 114 in the WAFL in 2015, I don’t think those concerns are warranted. He is easily a sixth or seventh midfielder at a minimum – don’t be afraid to get some value on him.
The Adelaide captain went at pick 192 in our mock draft, which I thought was far too late given the relative consistency he has shown to the Crows and in fantasy. He averaged 77 fantasy points last year and 81 in 2015. Tex will be worth a number four or five forward during the season without a doubt, so if you could grab him after the 18th round that will add tremendously to your depth.
When you get to that stage that there’s no more solid guaranteed players left to take here are the lottery picks/flyers that I like this year:
Who do you like this year to break out? What players have you got your eye on this season? Leave a comment in the comments section below.