Fantasy

Prophet’s Profit: Round 4

The Prophet’s Profit is back with a bang for a 5th year! Here to take you through the ups and down of the fantasy season. The aim of this article is to empower you with knowledge of the current fantasy stock market.

The Prophet’s profit is back after a long, long weekend of footy in round 4. I’ve been playing this great game of draft league fantasy footy long enough to know that fantasy heartbreak can easily turn around into fantasy joy. Last week I had a crushing loss in my keeper league by 1 point, due to heroics from Alex Neal-Bullen and Gary Ablett. This week I was going into the Monday game defending a slim 80=point lead with Luke Hodge against three players. But the Hawks veteran got the job done in the last minute. As I was refreshing the scores I was down in the last minute, then Hodge got a kick, which was partially smothered, only to have the ball go straight back to him for another kick to hand me the victory by a solitary point!

Enough about my leagues, now is the time to start thinking about trades which will improve your team over the course of the season, and with so many players either over achieving or under achieving it’s a good time to take advantage of trades.

Alex Neal-Bullen
The young Melbourne utility has had a cracking start to the season. Those who took a chance on him late in their draft or off the waivers would be thrilled with him going at an average at a tick over 100. There is risk/reward with keeping him though, he could just as easily get a 40 this week and lose all of his value. Or you could flip him to a player that won’t lose their value by the odd poor score. If I owned him I’d be looking at getting a decent price for him.
Advice: Sell High

Justin Westhoff
Westhoff has been averaging 73.3 to start the season which wouldn’t be the sort of return coaches would be expecting of him, considering he averaged 81 last year and 90 two weeks ago. However the Power have Carlton and Brisbane over the next two weeks, which look like prime games for the big man to get himself back into form. If you’re looking for an improvement to your forward line you could do worse that buying in Westhoff low, at least for a couple of weeks, then on sell him after that.
Advice: Buy Low

Josh Dunkley
With the Bulldogs forward injury woes Luke Beveridge has said that the Dogs will have to revert to the forward set up adopted toward the back end of last season. Dunkley thrived in this system, averaging 84 over 17 games. After just one game for 70 points this season it’s well worth making an offer to Dunkley, who could pay dividends for your team.
Advice: Buy Low

Brandon Ellis
This one hurts a bit. He’s been one of my favourites for a long time. He’s clearly playing a different role that doesn’t translate well into fantasy points, averaging just 67.5 for the year. The only redeeming feature is that he has improved his output each game with a 51, 68, 74 and 78. In 2014 he averaged 68.5 over the first four games of the season, then turned around following this and busted out 10 tons for the rest of the year and averaged over 105 from there on. Not saying that will happen this year, but it might. Damien Hardwick has to know he’s not getting the best out of Ellis, and it might only be a matter of time before he moves him into a position where he is getting more of the footy. Not saying a return to form definitely will happen, but there is a chance that it could. You won’t be taking a massive risk in getting him into your team if you buy him in on the cheap.
Advice: Buy Low

If you have any questions please leave a comment below and I’ll get back to you.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Justin

    April 19, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    Who should I start out of jack watts and Brandon Matera?

  2. F3

    April 19, 2017 at 7:12 pm

    LeCras and Caddy are absolutely stinking it up in my fwd line. Caddy is super frustrating, because he’s been named as the starting rover 3 times and I can’t start him at his current form and unpredictable inconsistency. I can’t really start Lecca either, even though I can put him on the bench as a loophole, hoping he goes downhill skiing against a weak opponent. I’m too reluctant to drop either of them because I drafted them as starting lineup players, but I’m looking at Caleb Daniel & Westhoff in the FA pool, and thinking.. do I stick with my two spuds and hope they improve or roll the dice on one of the other two. Or, someone else. Thoughts?

  3. Matt

    April 19, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    I have the option to have dylan shiel or clyaton oliver in my team for the rest of the year? Who should I take?

    • Matt McGrath

      April 20, 2017 at 10:39 am

      Shiel for mine. Oliver is hot but – looking at Ollie Wines’ similar trajectory, he’ll likely fade. Shiel is a proven 100-pt mid so takes higher preference here.

      My thoughts anyway.

  4. David

    April 19, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    Thoughts on buying ward low? I have no idea what’s going on with him but Ca get him cheap. Hodge for Matt Crouch and Ward.

  5. Billy Hoyle

    April 19, 2017 at 5:56 pm

    Still stinging from a bad second half of the draft, missing out on a decent F2 D2 and ruck. So I’ve had to invest in injured players returning. With the glut of injured players returning, could Mason Wood sneakily be the best forward option?

    Also minus Menegola, Newnes, Firioni and B Crouch…do you think there are any mids that can be a surprise 90-100 scorer this season?

  6. Paul

    April 19, 2017 at 5:09 pm

    Ellis should have got Def DPP after round 3. Something very fishy with UF uf he doesnt get it after Round 6.

  7. Matt

    April 19, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    Hey Alex, loved the article mate! How will Jason Johannison do this year and is it worth owning both matt suckling and him?

    • Alex Mulholland

      Alex Mulholland

      April 19, 2017 at 6:29 pm

      JJ is doing great this year. Expect 90+, don’t see any reason why you can’t have both Suckling and JJ in the same team.

  8. Tim

    April 19, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    Hey mate few free agents around
    Please rank mayes, broadbent, burton

    Thanks

    • Alex Mulholland

      Alex Mulholland

      April 19, 2017 at 5:31 pm

      Broadbent, Mayes then Burton. Broadbent similar to Westhoff for me, he’ll beat up on the easier opponents in the next couple of weeks. Worth an add if he’s on waivers.

  9. Matt

    April 19, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    How do these mids rank against each other? Who will have the highest average by season’s end (please rank if possible). The mids are Oliver, Josh Kelly and Dylan Shiel.

    • Alex Mulholland

      Alex Mulholland

      April 19, 2017 at 5:33 pm

      Kelly, Shiel then Oliver. Although Oliver might have the highest upside of those 3, I’d prefer to see it over an extended period of time.

  10. PC

    April 19, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    Hi Alex, the following trade has been offered in a non-keeper league…z Merrett, i smith, harmes and s Selwood for Fyfe, Gibbs, Gunston and Myers…thoughts please?

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Become a Footy Prophet!

Most Popular

Footy Prophet is your first-class and central resource point for AFL fantasy football, providing weekly projections, analysis and coverage across everything you need to know to dominate your fantasy rivals.

Latest Tweets

  • What are you more likely to watch?
    about 2 hours ago
  • A new pay deal, Hall of Fame inductions, doorstopping & AFLX all caught the eye this week. The weekend though? ⤵️ https://t.co/OXKQUQXtZk
    about 5 hours ago
  • With a full round of games this weekend, who are you tipping? Hawthorn has already caused a bit of an upset. https://t.co/pvdzEXxW7l
    about 6 hours ago

Facebook

Copyright © 2017 Footy Prophet

To Top