SuperCoach finals begin this week, and with it comes the unfortunate and untimely news that Patrick Dangerfield will spend a week on the sidelines.
While 32% of SuperCoaches without him (who clearly don’t have a clue about the game) will be jumping for joy, 67% are facing the prospect of being without far-and-away the best scorer in the game.
He’s not exactly a POD, is he?
This is what makes trading him out such an interesting proposition, as it could see your finals chances and rank flourish for the week.
Or it could see you flop if you are unable to trade him back in.
All of this depends on your priorities, your position, your amount of trades left and most importantly – your cojones.
Trading out a bloke averaging 150 from his past 5 is uh…. fraught with Danger (couldn’t help myself there), but it could be a very beneficial play.
Let’s take a look at some of the situations that I’m sure many of you find yourselves in, to determine what to do with Danger
Trades to burn (5+)
It’s a credit to you if you are in this position.
You have decided not to smash the trade at every God-given opportunity, and now it is time for you to take full advantage of the pieces of gold at your disposal.
I fully encourage you to trade Danger out if you have five or more trades, as it will give you a massive edge over your competitors for this week.
With this amount of trades, you should be able to trade Danger back IN either next week or the week after, depending on whether you have the cash to do so (he has a breakeven of 195).
Serious lack of trades (3 or fewer trades)
You’ve smashed that trade button on too many occasions this season. There will be more injuries and suspensions to come (JPK, Jake Lloyd, Danger, Mumford, Kreuzer and now Witts all fell victim last week), and we can’t be wasting it on a one-week absence, can we?
The Rank-centric SuperCoacher
Rank is the biggest driver (in my opinion) of SuperCoach and the sign of a serious SuperCoacher. If anyone says to me “yeah I don’t care for rank, I just play for league wins”, I can tell they don’t take the game seriously.
Sitting in the top 1% or higher
Some of us at this late stage has a sneaky chance of taking out the $50k.
If you find yourself in this scenario, I am very, very jealous of you.
Trading out Danger is the sort of play that is extremely ballsy, but it is a point-of-difference move. A season defining move.
Those of you in the top 10, 50, 100 in SuperCoach would have made some bold calls already this season. This is another one of those decisions that could see you rise up the ranks.
This week could be the chance to get a 100-150 point jump on your opponents through a downgrade of Danger to say Dusty, and an upgrade of a Heath Shaw-type to Michael Hurley in defence.
The League-centric SuperCoacher
For some of us in this caper, league wins and premierships are the be-all and end-all. Here are some possible scenarios for those of you after bragging rights.
Sitting top of league/double chance
If you are in this bracket, you are the envy of your mates – especially if you are in a cash league. While I tend to be in this position due to SuperCoach being my only pastime, it is my lack of trades that usually cost me SuperCoach glory.
In this position, you are best to sit on your hands and hold Danger, because ultimately it will cost you at most 80 points this week (if you have at least average cover) and I’d say it is likely that your opponent will hold him too.
This goes for those of you in ‘minor finals’ too – although let’s be honest, they really don’t matter…
Wouldn’t be putting ‘SuperCoach Minor Premier ‘17’ on my CV.
This sort of depends on who you are up against, but sometimes you’ve gotta throw the rule book out the window in this fickle game.
You could have your $50 entry on the line sitting in 8th spot, coming up against your mate in 5th, who narrowly missed out on the top four with a much better side than you.
In a scenario like this, it is going to take a bold move to knock them off. Downgrading Danger to an uber-premium for a week might just be that risk worth taking.
Also, this cash will allow you to upgrade an underperforming premium like Toby Nankervis.
As a Cash Grab
As it stands, Dangerfield has a breakeven of 195. This is a giant hurdle to climb even for the #1 SuperCoacher in the land, and I reckon he is in for at least a $20k price drop against the Tigers in his return. Two weeks from a premium on the rise could net you $50k+, which could see you profit in both the point and cash department.
You would have to have the luxury of trades in the bank to accommodate this.
Without further ado… Here are some options for those of you considering to trade out Danger:
Clayton Oliver | Avg: 112.2 | $554,700 | BE: 47
Last 4: GWS, STK, BRIS, COLL
This man has put the phrase “second-year blues” to bed. Oliver has gone at 112 points to date, with his most emphatic performance to date coming last week. Has fallen under 100 just four times with a low score of 80, and proved he is capable of posting massive totals after his monster 170 against North. Expected to jump $30k this week and his last three games are at the ‘G.
Dustin Martin | Avg: 117.9 | $597,000 | BE: 67
Last 4: HAW, GEEL, FREM, STK
Dusty has gone from strength to strength in recent weeks, posting scores of 150 and 142 on the trot. He may have the Brownlow Medal wrapped up, but don’t expect his form to taper for the last month of 2017. Dusty has hit 140+ six times this year, and I reckon he has got a couple of massive scores left in him. The best option for Danger in my eyes.
Dayne Zorko | Avg: 113.9 | $611,500 | BE: 170
Last 4: WBD, GCS, MELB, NM
Returns from suspension this week coming off a 142 and a 196 in his past two matches. Three of his last four games are at the ‘GABBA, where he has eclipsed 110 points in six of his eight games this season. Has a big breakeven to contend with (170) so Zorko wouldn’t be a ‘cash grab’ sort of option. Still under 10% ownership, so would be a #PODplay
Tom Mitchell | Avg: 117.2 | $614,800 | BE: 145
Last 4: RICH, NM, CARL, WBD
Tommy Mitchell has been a picture of consistency this season. TMitch fell below 100 for the first time in 13 weeks against the Swans, the second time he’s failed to amass a ton this season. Opposition sides are fairly unwilling to man him up, but he hasn’t reached the heights that Martin and Zorko have, due to the fact he loves a bit of junk time. Did churn out five 120+ totals in a row before last week’s blip, though.
Matt Crouch | Avg: 106.6 | $585,700 | BE: 98
Last 4: PORT, ESS, SYD, WCE
Here’s a cheeky one. You’d be excused for being unaware of this man’s efforts over the past nine weeks. Matt Crouch has averaged 121 over his last five and hasn’t dropped under 199 since Round 9. Sloane should continue to get tagged for the remainder of the season, leaving Crouchyboy to gather disposals at will as he has all season. Should go large in the Showdown this weekend.
Outside the box
Mitch Duncan ($557,000, BE: 111) without Danger for the week and Dayne Beams ($463,700, BE: 27) at a discount price are also good options.. If you are really, really ballsy, Daniel Wells ($372,300, BE: 36) may be worth some consideration after his 130 on the weekend.
Players to upgrade with Danger cash
Toby Nankervis | Avg (last 5): 80.6 | $403,200 | BE: 122
It gives me great displeasure to say that The Nank is cooked. Big man Ivan Soldo looks to be in the side for good, which has seen Nank spend half his time forward in recent weeks. Booted three goals on the weekend for a score of just 66… If you have trades in hand and want to trade out Danger, he should be the first to upgrade with the cash. There is also scope to upgrade to both ruckmen and forwards here.
Options: Paddy Ryder, Brodie Grundy, Stefan Martin,
Tom Rockliff | Avg (last 5): 67.6 | $381,600 | BE: 106
Same story as Nank here, Rocky is bloody stuffed. Has failed to go above 100 since returning to the side in Round 12, and spent extended stints in the forward line on the weekend. 57, 57 and 66 in his past three. Time to give him the boot.
Options: Dustin Martin, Dayne Zorko, Clayton Oliver
Heath Shaw | Avg (last 5): 81.8 | $422,700 | BE: 117
I have a personal vendetta against this bloke considering I traded him in before Round 8 believing that his poor scores couldn’t continue. They did. Was swapped into the forward line last week after being virtually irrelevant with Williams and Wilson running amuck. Not a must trade-out but there are better options around.
Options: Michael Hurley, Bachar Houli, Sam Docherty
Josh P. Kennedy | Avg (last 5): 92.4 | $492,900 | BE: 159
JPK got under 20 disposals for the first time in a long time on the weekend, mostly due to a hamstring injury sustained in the third quarter. He is a big chance to miss this weekend, and the cash from Danger would allow you to kill two birds with one stone and have two bonafide premiums on the park instead of two outs.
Options: Dustin Martin, Dayne Zorko, Clayton Oliver